VIETNAM'S SOCIO-ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT No.1, SPRING 1995
@
Dr. VU TUAN ANH
Institute of Economics, Hanoi
Vietnam has undergone many economic, social, management and
diplomatic changes in the past decade. Three main orientations for
reform are being put into practice:
- First, in the economic field, to operate a shift from a centrally
planned economy to a market economy;
- Second, in social life, to carry out a process of intensified
democratization and at the same time to build a legally authoritative
state of the people, by the people and for the people;
- Third, in international relations, to practise an open-door policy,
step up communications and cooperative relations with the outside
world for the sake of peace, independence and development.
This reform of socio-economic policies has been unfolding in the
context of a rapidly changing world. Those global changes have had a
direct and extremely vigorous effect on Vietnam's socio-economic
development. Under the influence of reform, the socio-economic
situation in Vietnam has undergone fundamental change.
1. ECONOMIC GROWTH
Prior to the 1980s, Vietnam's economy operated under a
centralized planning system. This mechanism proved then to be suited
to war-time conditions, and played a positive role in the
mobilization of the country's available resources in the service of
national liberation and reunification. However, from 1975 onwards, in
the stage of socio-economic development in peace-time, the fact that
the State assumed the leadership of all economic branches and the
management of all economic activities in a country with over 60
million inhabitants proved to be ineffective and still hampered the
development of the country.
In the years 1979-1980, owing to cuts in aid from outside and the
U.S. led economic blockade, Vietnam underwent a deep economic crisis.
In face of such circumstances, Vietnam gradually issued a series of
adjustment policies oriented toward liberalization and marketization,
considering them to be situational solutions. But it was initial
changes at micro level that led to the reconsideration of the
directions regarding development, and to the ultimate adoption of
proper economic policies at macro level.
A line for economic reform oriented toward the market economy was
proclaimed by the leading body of Vietnam in 1986 which was
subsequently followed by a series of reforms to be strictly
implemented by the whole country. The result was that when embarking
on the 1990s, Vietnam's economy was restructured to conform to a
market mechanism.
Freed from the grip of the rigid centralized planning system,
economic activities have developed with redoubled vigour. In the four
years 1991-1994 taken together, on an average, the GDP increased
every year by 7.9 percent (see Figure 1).
Source : Statistical Yearbooks of Vietnam 1992, 1993.
In the difficult conditions of an economy transfering to a market
mechanism, in addition to a sudden cut in main financial aid from the
former Soviet Union and Eastern European countries with a concurrent
loss of export markets to these countries, the economic growth rates
can only be described as a highly significant success for Vietnam.
The level of economic growth has three advantages. First, that
economic growth rate is far higher compared with previous years.
Though having no data for the GDP rate in the years before 1986, but
compared only with the period 1986-1990, the growth rate of the first
years of the 1990s has already doubled. Second, the growth rate has
remained stable, while in previous period, the economic growth
suffered irregular increases and decreases with large oscilations.
Third, what is most important is that the economic growth rate did
not rely mainly on a great source of external aid.
Compared with several countries in Asia, Vietnam in recent years has
recorded a rate of economic growth of medium range (see Table 1).
Table 1 : GDP growth rate of Vietnam and several other Asian
countries (%)
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China |
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Hong Kong |
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Indonesia |
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India |
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South Korea |
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Malaysia |
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Philippines |
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Singapore |
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Taiwan |
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Thailand |
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Vietnam |
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Source : Asian Economic Outlook 1993. ADB. 1994
The growth rate in two important branches of Vietnam's material
production, namely agriculture and industry, differed much from each
other.
Agricultural production still constitutes a branch of primary
importance in Vietnam's economy, attracting 70 per cent of the
work-force and producing as much as nearly 40 per cent of the
GDP.
Due to the achievements in the improvement of irrigation systems, in
the supply of new varieties of seeds and also as a result of reform
policies, food production has rapidly and continually increased from
1988 to now. The growth index of food production was higher than the
population growth rates. For that reason, food output per capita has
increased with passing years. The indicator was only 281 kg of rice
in 1987; it increased to 349 kg in 1988, 349 kg in 1989, 324 kg in
1990, 325 kg in 1991, 349 kg in 1992, 359 kg in 1993 and it
maintained the level of 359 kg in 1994. With such a growth in
agricultural production, Vietnam has ensured safety in food supply.
Vietnam is exporting 2 million tons of rice per year. The total food
output would decrease by about 1 million tons if there were crop
failures owing to natural disasters, that is to say the part of
export rice was only affected, but this decrease in food production
did not cause any shortage of food to home consumers.
Food safety is an important requirement for an agricultural country
such as Vietnam. In economic aspects, it has created conditions for a
change of structure in agriculture itself. The farmers are no longer
to produce food at all cost as they did in the past. They can now
make calculations about economic effectiveness and select the plant
species which may bring them higher income. In the 1990s, the
increase of output in non-food plants is higher than the growth rate
of the whole agricultural production and of food crops. For instance,
the average annual rate of increase in peanuts during the period
1991-1993 was 6.8 percent, in tea 6.6 percent, in mulbery 16.9
percent, in rubber 6.5 percent, in coffee 7.4 percent. Buffalos,
cattle, pigs, ducks and chickens have also been the object of large
scale farming to meet population food requirements, and enough jobs
have been created for farmers in practicing animal husbandry and
constitute a source of profits to supplement their income.
The difficulty lying now in agriculture are the low prices of
agricultural products and the lack of a consumption market. Products
destined for exportation are mainly in crude form, and there's steady
market. Though the State pays much concern to supporting and
assisting agricultural production by investing in irrigation works
and developing an extensive network of technical services to farmers,
the results obtained were rather limited as the State lacks
funds.
Agricultural production has not become high intensive farming in many
areas, even in the Mekong river delta. In recent years, the average
rice yield in southern provinces almost stood level at 3.5
tons/hectare, while in northern provinces, due to intensive farming
and use of high-yielding varieties, rice output has increased from
2.8 tons/hectare in 1990 to 3.7 tons/hectare in 1994.
Compared with other rice-growing countries in Asia, the rice yield in
Vietnam is still low. For instance, the average rice yield in
Indonesia is at present 4 tons/hectare, in Yunnan (China) 4.2
tons/hectare. Due to lack of investment, both intensification and
expansion of the acreage under rice cultivation are much restricted.
The coefficient of land rotation is not yet high. The capacity of
growing a third crop in winter has not been utilized. Liverstock
breeding has increased in intensity, but it still remains a secondary
branch. The average pork output per capita in 1994 was only about 9
kg.
After a period of recession in 1989-1990, industrial production has
completely recovered and started to record a high growth. On an
average, during the three last years 1991-1993, industrial growth
rate was 13.2 per cent per year. A number of important items such as
electric power, crude oil, cement, steel and paper have gained a high
and steady growth rate due to concentrated capital investments. A
number of other industrial products, though not having a monopoly and
facing strict competition by imported goods, have always secured a
good growth rate. Those include iron and steel for construction,
fertilizers, transformers, soaps, detergents, plastic goods, leather
products, electronic appliances, beer and soft drinks. (See Table
2).
Table 2: Some main products of the industry 1990-1994
Products |
1990 |
1991 |
1992 |
1993 |
1994* |
Electric power (Bil.KWh) |
8.79 |
9.31 |
9.82 |
10.85 |
12.69 |
Crude oil (Mil.tons) |
2.7 |
4.0 |
5.5 |
6.3 |
7.0 |
Cement (Mil.tons) |
2.53 |
3.13 |
3.72 |
4.85 |
5.17 |
Paper (Thous.tons) |
79 |
109 |
118 |
128 |
139 |
Steel (Thous.tons) |
101 |
149 |
196 |
243 |
250 |
Fertilizers (Thous.tons) |
354 |
450 |
530 |
714 |
788 |
Beer (Mil.liters) |
100 |
131 |
169 |
230 |
276 |
Fabrics (Mil.meters) |
318 |
280 |
275 |
310 |
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* Estimated data
Source: General Statistical Office.
However, industry now is facing great trials no matter how big
the index. Machinery and equipment are not adequately available, not
to mention the low technical skills and poor technologies of the
indigenous industrial establishments which can not compete with
foreign-imported goods. A number of foodstuffs processing industries
and industrieal branches such as textiles and mechanical ingineering,
are in a state of stagnation and decline before harsh competition
from outside, especially the dirt-cheap goods from China. In 1993,
over one-third of the main products in the country were cut in output
as compared to 1992. Such products as diezel engines, water pumps,
insecticide sprayers, manual farm instruments, cotton and silk
fabrics, and ready-made garments reduced output from 20 to 50 per
cent. It is of utmost necessity to counter smuggling of foreign goods
and to use the custom barriers in a rational manner to protect
home-made products. But the way out of the state of depression for
industry should be first and foremost the renewal of equipment and
technology, and a change in business strategy and product
assortiment. It is predicted that in years ahead, industry may gain a
rate of growth of over 10 per cent per year if conditions are
favourable.
Although it would be possible to maintain the GDP growth rate for a
number of years ahead with increased investments from inside the
country and abroad, it should be envisaged to see to structural
change and industrialization in order to avoid the danger of a
declining growth rate by the end of this decade. This could be
explained by an analysis of structural change in the economy.
2. STRUCTURAL CHANGE
In the past few years, the sectoral structure of the Vietnamese
economy has been changing slowly. The proportion of agriculture was
reduced from 41.4% in 1987 to 35.0% in 1994. After a period of
recession and decrease of its proportion in GDP, industry begin to
rehabilitate its place. The service sector has considerably increased
from 33% in 1987 to 39.0% in 1994. The economic structure change was
due mostly to a shift to a market economy; not yet to the change in
the growth and structure of investment.
The following picture (see Table 3) is comparing the economic
structure of Vietnam with that of several other Asian countries.
Table 3: Structure of GDP of Asian countries (percent)
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Agric. |
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Industr |
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Servic |
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China |
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Hong Kong |
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Indonesia |
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India |
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South Korea |
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Malaysia |
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Philippines |
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Singapore |
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Taiwan |
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Thailand |
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Vietnam |
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Source: Asian Economic Outlook 1993.
Attention must be given to the data on GDP structure of Vietnam
calculated on the 1989 price, that is to say the time when the prices
for industrial products still contained some subsidized elements from
the State and set at an artificial level compared with the prices of
agricultural products and services fixed by the market. Thus, the
proportion of industry was lower compared to reality. If supposing
that there were not many errors committed in the making of statistics
in different countries, and comparisons could be possible, Vietnam's
actual economic structure is similar to that of Thailand prior to
1970, of Indonesia before 1970, of India in 1980.
The proportion of the service sector in Vietnam's GDP at present has
attained approximately the level of the countries with a higher rate
of development. In the future, this proportion will not increase
much, and structural changes called upon to bring about a high
economic growth rate shall be oriented toward industrial development
and correspondingly the proportion of agriculture should
diminish.
In examining the structural change of each sector, we should be aware
of the fact that structural shifts do not take place as strongly as
wished for. In agriculture, as said above, the ratio of liverstock
breeding to cultivation does not change considerable. In industry,
except the tendency to raise the proportion of fuel industry due to
increased oil output, the structural shift is not yet clearly seen.
In services, commerce constitutes the branch with the greatest
proportion, usually accounting for one third of the added value of
the tertiary industry. In the meantime, finance, banking and
insurance, which are important services in the market economy,
account only for about 4 percent of the added value of the tertiary
industry.
An important tendency in Vietnam's structural change in the past
period is a vigorous switch from import-substitution production to
export-oriented one. In reality, the idea on promoting exports to
gain enough foreign currencies for covering industrialization
expenditure was already devised long before. But against the past
politico-economic background of Vietnam, this idea could not be put
into practice. No with policies aimed at boosting production and
liberalizing economic relations with the outside world, Vietnam can
make big strides on her path of development. The rapid increase in
oil output and in the exportation of rice in particular has secured
Vietnam a considerable gain in export turnover.
With the exception of 1991 (in which the disintegration of the
Council Of Mutual Economic Aid was the cause of the loss of Vietnam's
commercial contracts signed with former Soviet Union and East
European countries), in general Vietnam has increasingly exported her
commodities abroad. Correspondingly, imports were reduced in the
years 1989-1991. In two recent years, the balance of payment has
improved. (See Figure 2).
In general Asian countries have secured a high rate of exports,
almost over 10% per year; in some countries and territories such as
Thailand and Hong Kong, that rate was over 20%. With the exceptions
of Philippines in 1990 and 1991, India in 1991 and 1992, Taiwan in
1990 (where the rates of exports were very low due to political
factors), such increase in exports conforms with development in
trading relations in the region. This has created a closer connection
of Vietnam's economy with other economies in the region (see Table
4)
Figure 2: Vietnam's Imports - Exports in 1987 - 1994@
Source : Statistical Yearbooks of Vietnam 1992, 1993.
Table 4: Export growth rates of Asian countries (%)
China
Hong Kong
Indonesia
India
South Korea
Philippines
Singapore
Taiwan
Thailand
Vietnam
Sources Statistical Yearbooks of Vietnam 1992, 1993
Asian Economic Outlook 1993.
3. MACRO-ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT
Vietnam's recent success in economic reforms has been spoken of
favourably of by Western economists, and consists mainly in the
improvement of the macro-economic environment.
Prices have been set according to demand and supply relationship on
the market since 1989. The official exchange rate and the market
exchange rate have been drawn closer to each other, and since
mid-1991, an unique exchange rate has prevailed. The State has been
intervening in adjustment and regulation to secure a relative
stability for Vietnam's currency. Though this policy is still being
hotly discussed as regards its effect on exports, one thing is clear
that it has a positive impact on the mentality of domestic investors
and consumers.
The most striking feature was the curbing of galloping inflation. The
price index from 3 digits in 1988 was gradually reduced and stood
only at 5.5% in 1993. In 1994 the inflation rate insreased to 14%
again. The prices of goods and services in 1994 have increased owing
to the following reasons:
- the government has carried out wage reforms from March 1993;
- a number of imported products such as fertilizers and cotton in the
world market have increased in prices. Even the prices of several
important home-made products such as electricity and paper have
increased.
- the government has used several measures of intervention with a
view to raising the price of agricultural products (such as purchase
of rice to store in the national food reserve fund and increase of
exports). On other hand, the quality of rice for export and domestic
consumption has improved which has raised selling prices. As a
result, the prices of foodgrains and foodstuffs have increased more
rapidly than other commodities (See Table 5).
Table 5: Index of retail price (percent)
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- Commodities and services |
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Commodities |
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+ Food and foodstuffs |
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# Food |
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# Foodstuffs |
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+ Non-food commodities |
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Services |
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- Gold |
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- U.S.dollar |
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* Nine first months of 1994
Source : General Statistical Office 1994.
Vietnam has been successful in cutting down her public
expenditures and in controlling inflation, thereby biulding an
effective financial system. The taxation system is being reformed to
be suit the new circumstances. In former times, budgetary receipts
were mostly derived from the contributions of State-owned businesses.
Now Vietnam has been gradually shifted to the collection of different
taxes ranging from turnover tax, profit tax, natural resources
exploitation tax, land tax, export and import tax and income tax. At
present is under consideration the application of an value added
tax.
The banking system has undergone a radical transformation to adapt
itself to the requirements of the market economy. The interest rates
of savings bank deposits have been adjusted in time with the aim of
attracting more funds available among the population. In the coming
time, Vietnamese banks must strive to raise their professional
capabilities in order to effectively compete with foreign banks in
the monetary market.
One thing should be considered that from the analysis of the
distribution of the GDP in the past few years, it was seen that the
rate of savings was still very low, accounting only for about 13% of
the GDP. Compared with the average rate of savings ranging from 17 to
25% in developing countries, or even from 30 to 34% in China, this
proves to be a worrisome figure because with it a decrease in the
growth rate would be a real danger. In order to ensure an average
annual growth rate of no less than 8%, the total capital invested
must account for at least 20-25% of the GDP. At present, it is only
one half of that required figure. The rate was 4.8% in 1991, 6.9% in
1992 and 12.7% in 1993.
4. EXTERNAL RESOURCES FOR ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT
Vietnam highly appreciates the finances contributed by external
sources. The Vietnamese leadership has affirmed in "The Strategy of
socio-economic stabilization and development of Vietnam up to year
2000" that "efforts should be made to attract funds from foreign
countries, secure aid and assistance from outside and to borrow money
at low interest rate".
This strategy has planned that for doubling the per capita GDP,
Vietnam would need an amount of invested capital to the order of
40-50 billion US dollars, of which foreign funds derived from ODA,
credit loans, foreign adids, direct investment, issue of debentures
etc. should make up 50 per cent.
First of all, Vietnam must strive to improve and expand her relations
with international financial and monetary institutions. She is a
member country of the IMF and WB since 1950 and of ADB since 1966.
From the early 1980s, those organizations did not lend any money to
Vietnam for political reasons.
From 1990 to now, due to economic recovery and growth, especially to
rapidly increased exports, Vietnam has paid back a number of debts
long overdue. On July 2, 1993 US President Bill Clinton opened the
way for the relations to be resumed between international financial
organizations and Vietnam. Immediately after his declaration,
financial and banking organizations granted credit to Vietnam. Since
October 7, 1993, relations with IMF, WB and ADB have been normalized.
ADB began to lend to Vietnam 127 million US dollars in 4 years
1993-1996. According to provisions, ADB will lend Vietnam 300 million
US dollars in 1994 and 350 million US dollars for 1995 and 1996 (with
interest rate of 1% per annum during 40 years) for development
purposes.
On November 1, 1993, the WB agreed to grant to Vietnam a loan of
228.5 million US dollars for two projects on infrastructure
development, namely to help develop the primary education system and
upgrade highway No. 1A. Subsequently, in the three coming years, WB
will provide Vietnam with a a credit of 1 billion US dollars. This
program of financial assistance shall be concentrated in the
reorganization of State-owned enterprises, in the liberalization of
the capital and labour market, in the encouragement of exports, and
last but not least in the attraction of private capital into the
domains of communications and energy.
Thus, after 15 years, three major international financial
organizations have resumed on a much larger scale financial aid to
Vietnam. In the 1993-1994 fiscal year alone, the sums of money lent
to Vietnam amounted to 850 million US dollars. A meeting of developed
countries held in November 1994 in Paris announced that they would
lend to Vietnam 2 billion US dollars in 1994-1995.
Several other international and national financial organizations have
also signed agreements on loans to Vietnam.
Though the financial aid from outside has regularly been provided for
Vietnam's development projects, what is worrying most is that Vietnam
may become a country where debts weigh heavily on the shoulders not
only of the present but also coming generations.
In Vietnam, the weakest link in the management and use of loaned
capital in past times was having an institution responsible for
refunding. In order to overcome this defect, the government issued
the decision No. 58/CP dated August 30, 1993, by which the power of
coordinating the loans and the money uses was concentrated in the
hands of the State Planning Committee (SPC). A national Council in
charge of bidding and contracting was set up under the chairmanship
of the head of the SPC. The Ministry of Finance and the State Bank
are assigned to manage the loaned funds to be distributed to
infrastructure projects such as transport and communications, public
health care and education.
Vietnam is developing bilateral relations with other countries. She
strives her best to attract direct foreign investment which
appropriately conforms to Vietnam's actual circumstances. This helps
provide Vietnam with more funds and new technologies, create more
jobs and raising income earnings.
Vietnam's new law on foreign investment was promulgated in 1987.
Compared with corresponding laws now prevailing in other countries in
the Asian region, Vietnam's foreign investment law is quite open and
more suited to investors' requirements, thereby seemingly more
attractive in terms of its provisions. Counting from the date of
promulgation of the law to August 31, 1994, Vietnam has granted
licences to 868 projects from investors of 51 countries and
territories (not including licences withdrawn for one reason or
another) with an aggregate registered capital of 9.139 billion US
dollars. The legal capital is 4.927 billion US dollars, with the
Vietnamese partners contributing 33.77% of the total invested capital
and the foreign partners the rest (66.23%).
Among different forms of projects with foreign investment, about 64%
of foreign investment projects are joint ventures between foreign and
Vietnamese partners. According to the Vietnamese Law on Foreign
Investment, the foreign capital in joint ventures is not limited by a
"celling percentage" (such as the shares 49/51 in some other
countries), but it should be lower than 30% of total status
capital.
Nearly 28.5% of projects are businesses with 100% foreign-owned
capital. There are now 329 these businesses with invested capital of
2.4 bil. US dollars. The form of business with 100% foreign-owned
capital is allowed in the cases when the most of products of business
are used for exports, or when business is located in the Export
Processing Zones and Industrial Estates. Branches of foreign banks
belong to this kind of business.
Business cooperation contract signed between Vietnamese and foreign
partners is one of the forms of foreign investment involvement. In
this case there isn't any new business legatity established. The
foreign partner should fulfil the financial duties according to the
Law on Foreign Investment, and the Vietnamese partner - to the laws
on domestic companies. Most of the projects in oil and gas
exploitation, importing materials and exporting processed goods are
conducted in the form of this business contracts. There have been 86
such projects licenced with more than 2 bil. US dollars.
The foreign investment projects are classified according to economic
branches as follows (see Table 6).
The following tendencies might be observed in foreign investments in
Vietnam:
- First, the rate of increase in investment capital is high. From
1988 to 1992, this capital rose averagely by 51.6% every year. In
1992, this capital was equal to 70% of the aggregate capital of the
four previous years added together. The year 1993 witnessed an
increase by 40% compared to 1992;
- Second, the average size of investment capital for one project (not
counting oil projects) has gradually increased with time. The size of
capital for each project was 3.5 million US dollars during the years
1988-1990, 7.5 million in 1991, 7.6 million in 1992, and 9.9 million
in 1993. Smaller scale projects with a capital of less than 5 million
US dollars each account for over 70% of all projects, but make up
only about 12% of the total registered capital;
- Third, there have been changes in the domain of investment. In the
years 1988-1990 exploration and exploitation of oil and gas
constituted the main preoccupation of foreign investors
Table 6: Foreign Direct Investment in Vietnam 1988-1994
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% |
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Hotel & tourism |
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Light industry |
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Oil & gas |
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Heavy industry |
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Transport &communication |
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Construction |
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Services |
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Agric.& forestry |
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Building EPZs |
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Finance & banking |
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Fishery |
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Culture & Education & Health care |
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Export-import |
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TOTAL |
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Sources : State Committee for Cooperation and Investment
1994
(accounting for 32.2% of the total investment capital), there
after came hotel business undertakings (20.6% of capital). But as
from 1991 onward, processing industries have occupied a predominant
position with 45% of the registered capital;
- Fourth, the form of investment with 100% foreign-owned capital is
tending to increase, from 6% of projects during the four years
1988-1991 to 17% in 1992 and to 28.5% at present. This increase is
due to the improved legal system in Vietnam which has on the one hand
inspired foreigners with much confidence in making investment and on
the other has kept foreign investors free from dispute and
controversy between partners in a joint venture;
- Fifth, there has been a transfer of investment- recipient
territory. The majority of projects lie in the three regions with
suitable infrastructural facilities. These are:
a/ in North Vietnam, that is the Hanoi capital - Haiphong port city -
Quangninh province triangle,
b/ in South Vietnam, that is the Ho Chi Minh City - Dongnai province
- Vungtau zone axis,
c/ in Central Vietnam, that is Danang city.
In the first years, North Vietnam did not attract much attention of
foreign investors, but in recent times it has attracted more and more
capital investment in projects designed to supply energy and raw
materials. This is chiefly due to a more improved infrastructure;
- Sixth, in the first years, investors were mainly small-sized
companies. In recent times, more and more big companies with abundant
capital and advanced technologies have joined in the investment
drive. West European companies at an early date made investments in
oil and gas exploration and exploitation, while their Asian
counterparts came later in this investment drive. But the latter's
percentage in the total capital invested in Vietnam has rapidly
increased and accounted actually for over 50% of projects and nearly
60% of registered capital.
Up to now, after 6 years of implementation of the law on foreign
investment, the positive socio-economic effect of investment is
strongly felt. Businesses with foreign capital have created nearly
50,000 jobs in their own establishments and about 100,000 jobs in the
service sector connected with their undertakings. The State budget
could derive more receipts from the taxes levied on those businesses.
In six years, these businesses have produced goods and services worth
780 million US dollars, and have also applied a number of new
technologies in telecommunication, oil and gas exploration,
electronic industry and agriculture. Vietnamese businessmen have
gained much experience in management and business operations.
Naturally, there have been also setbacks and failures. Due to
different causes and factors, 114 projects had seen their licences
withdrawn ahead of the time-limit (accounting for 14.3% of total
licence-granted projects and making up nearly 8.8% of total
investment capital in the six years from 1988 to 1993). There were no
few projects which could not meet the requirement in high technology
and economic efficiency. The majority of workers' strikes, which are
a rare phenomena in Vietnam's society, have taken place in
enterprises with foreign capital. The shift of qualified and skilled
laborers from the indigenous economic sector to the sector with
foreign-funded enterprises is rapidly gaining in scope along with an
increase in available funds. Those are phenomena deserving a constant
attention from the government so as to issue policies suited to the
socio-economic situation.
In spite of all that, foreign investment will continue to play an
important role in Vietnam's economic development. In coming decades,
when the source of accumulated funds from inside the country is not
made available in desired amounts, foreign capital shall make up a
bigger proportion in the total invested capital. It will be perhaps a
big push to development.
5. Concluding remarks
Vietnam's economy has passed through the critical period and
commences towards a take-off. The good results obtained from food
production, petroleum extraction, manufacture of important items such
as electricity and cement, to say nothing of an explosion in commerce
and services have contributed to maintaining the GDP at a good level.
The centralized planning mechanism in the economy was dissolved and
replaced by the market mechanism. Both State and private economic
sectors have been stimulated to further development for the country's
sake. The macro-economic environment is relatively stable with a low
rate of inflation and a steady currency exchange rate. Efforts have
been made to boost external economic relations. Potential sources
which could be mobilized for the country's socio-economic development
are most diversified.
However, the economy still bears an agricultural character. Industry
is not yet up to the mark. Production capacity is still inadequate to
be mobilized for bigger undertakings in the coming period of time. If
increased capital investments are not to be obtained from outside,
the rate of economic growth may not maintain the same level as it is
now. The curbing of inflation is not yet steady. The state budget
deficit is not yet completely eliminated with a permanent excess of
expenditures over recepts. The State hasn't enough money to service
its foreign debts which are much bigger than the annual export
turnover.
The legal system is not yet effecient, and more seriously still, law
execution is not as strict as it should. Unemployment is commonplace
everywhere, especially among working age youth. It constitutes a
burning problem that society should immediately tackle and also one
of the causes engendering social evils.
In order to encourage the socio-economic development in the coming
year, there are six key issues raised by the Vietnam's Government as
follows:
- Urgent reform of financial and monetary systems;
- Heightening the quality of development planning;
- Developing the overall strength of all economic sectors;
- Using new advantages to develop external economic relations;
- Reforming the educational system and improving the human
factor;
- Reforming the administrative system as part of economic reform.